vote in 2008 in blue states like new york and new jersey as cokie pointed out but also places like california which are states that he would have won anyway but there was so much organic enthusiasm for barack obama in 2008 that he won -- that a lot of people turned out even in deep blue states where their votes, of course, didn't count, they turned out in mass numbers. the president's people knee this year that's not going to happen. so in terms of the overall national popular vote, if you think about red states and blue states where neither campaign is trying to turn out the vote, the blue states like california and new york for various reasons the president's numbers won't be anywhere near as strong as they were in 2008 whereas in the deep red state there is's so much antipathy towards the president that people will turn out in those states even though they are deep red states. they'll turn out the cast a symbolic vote against barack obama. so that's one thing that skews the popular vote by conceivably on election day towards romney more than people are necessarily expecting >> i think that